Attacks on Security forces have increased considerably in recent months. Pakistani based Lashkar-e-Toiba alongwith other militant organization are planning a major campaign to “reignite” jihad in Jammu and Kashmir to match the time table of draw down of US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan. Pakistani militants have their own “PIVAT EAST” plan. Kashmiri separatist leaders plan to ramp up in Kashmir as US troops drawn down in Afghanistan. Pakistani militant groups are also working closely with Hizb-ul-Mujahideen to make the violence to appear as indigenous. Gool killings, raising the issue to disband VDCs in Kishtwar and subsequently violence in Kishtwar, Sectarian clashes in Budgam District are some of the issues wanted to flare up by separatists for their nefarious design, but the people of the state have dashed their hopes by not responding positively. Hizb-ul-Mujahideen is somewhat of a stalking horse for the LeT. The two groups appear to be working in tandem to slowly reignite the conflict, taking care to make any violence appear indigenous. This not only provides plausible deniability to Pakistan based actors but also is likely part of a strategy to trigger a genuine grassroots uprising.
Beyond launching more high profile attacks, militants are recruiting locals to engage in adhoc attacks. They are also working through above grand supporters to provoke civil unrest of which Kashmir valley has seen plenty since the conflict subsided. The militants are using Hi-tec methods for sending their directions. They are using voice over internet protocol (VOIP) to send instructions to these supporters. LeT is also funding to support those stoking civil unrest. Kashmir no longer retains the tag of being the most dangerous fault line in the world although it will remain a flash point for conflict for the foreseeable future Security forces are performing their duty very well alongwith different agencies that is why Kashmir would not return to the bad old days when roughly 2000 odd militants were chalking up attacks on a daily basis. Moreover, people of Kashmir have not supported the separatists now a day due to the miseries brought by them since two decades.
Many of the complaints one hears in Kashmir are similar to those voiced elsewhere in India and pertain to corruption, poor governance, lack of economic opportunity and freedom from an overly securitized environment. The difference is that it seems Kashmiris view these quotidian complaints through their troubled history of violent situation that has been enough of war and wants very little to return to it. They have witnessed a lot of bloodshed during the last 25 years where loss of precious lives, property and business activities were vanished away. The recent flare-up on the line of control between India & Pakistan has the potential to harm the improving relations and can trigger any sort of conflict. The safety of the people of Jammu and Kashmir living on both sides of Line of Control (LoC) entirely depend upon the conducive atmosphere between the two nations.
Recent attacks like beheaded of Indian soldiers on LoC, Hyderpora attack on Army Convoy, killing of police personnel on duty, attack on SRPF jawan in the school premises of Bemina and now killing of 5 Indian Soldiers at Poonch have confirmed the plan of Pakistan and several militant organizations within Pakistan and PoK are diverting their activities towards Indian Border once again. Pakistan indirectly waging proxy war with America & India under the garb of Militia organization and it will proves costly one day to it.